International Journal of Reliability, Risk and Safety: Theory and Application

International Journal of Reliability, Risk and Safety: Theory and Application

Uncertainties in Seismic Hazard Assessment of Metropolitan Tehran

Document Type : Original Research Article

Authors
Sasan Motaghed 1
Ahmad reza Fakhriyat 2
1 Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Behbahan Khatam Alanbia University of Technology, Behbahan, Iran
2 Center of Monitoring Assessment and Prediction of Natural Disasters (MAP), Behbahan Khatam Alanbia University of Technology, Behbahan, Iran
10.22034/IJRRS.2025.8.1.1
Abstract
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is a foundational element for determining design forces for new buildings and assessing the safety of existing structures. Consequently, decisions regarding the protection of urban infrastructures hinge on the outcomes of the PSHA. In recent years, numerous seismic hazard analyses have been conducted in Tehran, often yielding significantly divergent results. Such discrepancies can mislead analysts and stakeholders involved in urban safety. This article investigates the primary causes of variability in hazard results and quantitatively expresses the uncertainty associated with these findings. To achieve this, the Cornell-McGuire approach for PSHA is employed. The study's results indicate that the selection of ground motion prediction equations (GMPE or attenuation relationships), seismicity parameters(λ), and minimum magnitude(mmin) are critical factors contributing to this variability. Therefore, it is recommended that greater care be taken in selecting these parameters for PSHA conducted in Tehran.
Keywords
Seismic hazard analysis inputs
Seismicity parameters
Parameter distribution
Model selection
Subjects
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International Journal of Reliability, Risk and Safety: Theory and Application
Volume 8, Issue 1
June 2025
Pages 1-11

  • Receive Date 18 December 2024
  • Revise Date 27 March 2025
  • Accept Date 05 April 2025