International Journal of Reliability, Risk and Safety: Theory and Application

International Journal of Reliability, Risk and Safety: Theory and Application

Detailed Seismic Risk Assessment of a Blast-Resistant Concrete Building

Document Type : Original Research Article

Authors
1 Department of Civil Engineering, Engineering faculty, Behbahan Khatam Alanbia University of Technology, Behbahan, Iran
2 Faculty of Technology and Mining, Yasouj University, Choram, Iran
3 Center Of Monitoring Assessment and Prediction of Natural Disasters (MAP), Behbahan Khatam Alanbia University of Technology, Behbahan, Iran
4 Lorestan National University of Skills, Khorramabad, Iran
5 Department of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Behbahan Khatam Alanbia University of Technology, Behbahan, Iran
Abstract
Risk analysis plays a crucial role in pre-event planning by supporting informed decision-making and enabling effective strategies for crisis prevention and emergency response. This paper presents a comprehensive risk assessment of a specially designed concrete building with shear walls, engineered to withstand blast loads. Both deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) and non-extensive probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (NEPSHA) were conducted. The deterministic approach identified a peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 0.6g at the building site. NEPSHA estimated PGA values of 0.03g, 0.42g, and 0.74g for return periods of 10, 475, and 2,475 years, respectively. Hazard analysis results were visualized as hazard maps using GIS software. A three-story, blast-resistant concrete building with a 342-square-meter floor area and a shear wall lateral load-bearing system was modeled in OpenSees software. The structure's fragility curve was determined through incremental dynamic analysis (IDA), revealing a fundamental period of 0.08 seconds. The study quantified the probabilities of various damage levels at different hazard intensities and, using FEMA's Hazus methodology, estimated the resulting debris. Findings indicate that the shear wall-reinforced building, designed for blast resistance, satisfies the requirements for the design-level earthquake. However, its performance under severe and deterministic earthquake scenarios-particularly at the immediate occupancy performance level-warrants further investigation.
Keywords
Subjects

  1. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), "Hazus-MH MR4 technical manual, multi-hazard loss estimation methodology earthquake model," FEMA 366, Washington, DC, 2003.
  2. Z. Kangda, "Blast protection techniques: A review," Archives of Computational Methods in Engineering, vol. 29, no. 5, pp. 3509–3529, 2022, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11831-021-09704-5.
  3. Motaghed, H. Mahmoodian, and S. Dehdari, "Case studies in seismic risk assessment of masonry fire station buildings," International Journal of Reliability, Risk and Safety: Theory and Application, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 40-51, 2024, https://doi.org/10.22034/IJRRS.2024.7.2.4.
  4. Motaghed, N. Eftekhari, A. Nakhlian, L. Emadali, and H. Mahmoudian, "Seismic risk analysis in the Behbahan city old fabric," Journal of Safe City, vol. 8, no. 3, pp. 1-25, 2024, (in Persian), https://doi.org/10.22034/ispdrc.2024.2035043.1119.
  5. Hosseinpour, A. Saeidi, M. J. Nollet, and M. Nastev, “Seismic loss estimation software: A comprehensive review of risk assessment steps, software development and limitations,” Engineering Structures, vol. 232, 2021, Art. no. 111866, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2021.111866.
  6. Nicknam, M. Khanzadi, S. Motaghed, and A. Yazdani, "Applying b-value variation to seismic hazard analysis using closed-form joint probability distribution," Journal of Vibroengineering, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 1376-1386, 2014.
  7. Khanzadi, A. Nicknam, A. Yazdani, and S. Motaghed, "A Bayesian approach for seismic recurrence parameters estimation," Journal of Vibroengineering, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 977-986, 2014.
  8. W. Jia and Z. Y. Wu, "Seismic risk analysis based on imprecise distribution and failure probability function under multidimensional limit state," Structures, vol. 50, pp. 963–977, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.istruc.2023.02.036.
  9. Erdik, "Earthquake risk assessment," Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, vol. 15, no.12 pp. 5055–5092, 2017, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-017-0235-2.
  10. C. Ponzo et al., "Advanced modelling and risk analysis of RC buildings with sliding isolation systems designed by the Italian seismic code," Applied Sciences, vol. 11, no. 4, p. 1938, 2021, https://doi.org/10.3390/app11041938.
  11. M. H. Khatami and H. Momenabadi, "A full coupled numerical method for dynamic response of metro tunnel subjected to surface explosion," Journal of Rehabilitation in Civil Engineering, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 21-36, 2022, https://doi.org/10.22075/jrce.2021.23198.1501.
  12. Bedair, "Economical damage classification approach for blast-resistant buildings in petrochemical plants," Practice Periodical on Structural Design and Construction, vol. 25, no. 3, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)sc.1943-5576.0000503.
  13. Task Committee on Blast-Resistant Design of the Petrochemical Committee of the Energy Division of ASCE, Design of blast-resistant buildings in petrochemical facilities, American Society of Civil Engineers, 2010.
  14. Abdollahzadeh, G., Faghihmaleki, H. “Proposal of a probabilistic assessment of structural collapse concomitantly subject to earthquake and gas explosion,” Frontiers of Structural and Civil Engineering, 12, pp. 425–437, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11709-017-0427-5.
  15. ElSayed, W. El-Dakhakhni, and M. Tait, "Resilience evaluation of seismically detailed reinforced concrete-block shear walls for blast-risk assessment," Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities, vol. 30, no. 4, 2016, Art. no. 04015087, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CF.1943-5509.0000742.
  16. Shi, X. Sun, and J. Cui, "Reliability analysis of reinforced concrete columns under combined seismic and blast loads," Science China Technological Sciences, vol. 66, no. 2, pp. 363–377, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11431-022-2265-5.
  17. S. Keertan, T. M. Priya, and J. Bommisetty, "Comparative study on RCC frames subjected to blast and earthquake loading," Materials Today: Proceedings, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matpr.2023.05.334.
  18. Nastev, "Adapting Hazus for seismic risk assessment in Canada," Canadian Geotechnical Journal, vol. 51, no 2, pp. 217–222, 2014, https://doi.org/10/1139/cgj-2013-0080.
  19. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Hazus Multi-Hazard Loss Estimation Methodology: Earthquake Model (Hazus®-MH Technical Manual 2.1), Washington, DC: Mitigation Division, Department of Homeland Security, FEMA, 2012.
  20. A. Kircher, R. V. Whitman, and W. T. Holmes, "Hazus earthquake loss estimation methods," Natural Hazards Review, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 45–59, 2006, https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)1527-6988(2006)7:2(45).
  21. Mangalathu, F. Soleimani, and J. S. Jeon, "Bridge classes for regional seismic risk assessment: Improving Hazus models," Engineering Structures, vol. 148, pp. 755–766, 2017, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2017.07.019.
  22. Badawy, I. Korrat, M. El-Hadidy, and H. Gaber, "Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt," Journal of Seismology, vol. 21, no. 4, pp. 571–589, 2016, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-016-9621-5.
  23. Melani, R. Khare, R. Dhakal, and J. Mander, "Seismic risk assessment of low rise RC frame structure," Structures, vol. 5, pp. 13–22, 2016, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.istruc.2015.07.003.
  24. Yazdani, A. Nicknam, M. Khanzadi, and S. Motaghed, "An artificial statistical method to estimate seismicity parameter from incomplete earthquake catalogs: A case study in metropolitan Tehran, Iran," Scientia Iranica, vol. 22, no. 2, pp. 400-409, 2015, https://scientiairanica.sharif.edu/article_1874.html.
  25. Motaghed, N. Eftekhari, M. Mohammadi, and M. Khazaee, "Logic tree branches’ weights in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: The need to combine inter-subjective and propensity probability interpretations," Journal of Seismology, vol. 27, pp. 1035–1046, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-023-10177-1.
  26. Motaghed and A. Fakhriyat, "A Reliable Method for Determining the tapered minimum magnitude in a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis," International Journal of Reliability, Risk and Safety: Theory and Application, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 89–95, 2023, https://doi.org/10.30699/ijrrs.5.2.9.
  27. Motaghed, M. Khazaee, N. Eftekhari, and M. Mohammadi, "A non-extensive approach to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis," Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, vol. 23, no. 3, pp. 1117–1124, 2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1117-2023.
  28. Motaghed, A. Nakhlian, L. Emadali, N. Eftekhari, and H. Mahmoudian, "Seismic hazard assessment using arithmetic-weighted overlay method based on earthquake potential index (EPI), the southwestern Iran," Iranian Journal of Remote Sensing & GIS, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 23-40, 2025, (in Persian), https://doi.org/10.48308/gisj.2023.229646.1133.
  29. Motaghed et al., "Reliability of Iranian existing residential reinforced concrete structures in seismic events," International Journal of Reliability, Risk and Safety: Theory and Application, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 55–64, 2023, https://doi.org/10.22034/ijrrs.2023.6.2.7.
  30. Donà, G. Piredda, A. Zonta, E. Bernardi, and F. da Porto, "Seismic fragility of unbraced industrial steel pallet racks," Structural Safety, vol. 110, 2024, Art. no. 102497, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102497.
  31. Motaghed, M. S. Shahid Zadeh, A. Khooshecharkh, and M. Askari, "Implementation of AI for the prediction of failures of reinforced concrete frames," International Journal of Reliability, Risk and Safety: Theory and Application, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 1–7, 2022, https://doi.org/10.30699/IJRRS.5.2.1.
  32. “ATC-40, Seismic Evaluation and Retrofit of Reinforced Concrete Buildings,” Applied Technology Council, California, USA, Rep. SSC 96-01, 1996.
  33. Nicknam, M. Khanzadi, S. Motaghed, and A. Yazdani, "Applying b-value variation to seismic hazard analysis using closed-form joint probability distribution," Journal of Vibroengineering, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 1376-1386, 2014.
  34. Karim Zadeh et al., "Development of analytical seismic fragility functions for the common buildings in Iran," Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, vol. 20, no. 11 pp. 5905–5942, 2022, https://doi.org/10/1007/s10518-022-01411-1.
  35. Motaghed and A.R. Fakhriyat, "Modeling inelastic behavior of RC adhered shear walls in OpenSees," Journal of Modeling in Engineering, vol. 18, no. 63 pp. 15–25, 2021, https://doi.org/10/22059/jmei/.27362.
  36. Ghasemi, M. Zare, Y. Fukushima, and K. Koketsu, "An empirical spectral ground-motion model for Iran," Journal of Seismology, vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 499–515, 2008, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-008-9143-x.
  37. Eftekhari, S. Motaghed, L. Emadali, H. Sayyadpour, "Ranking of ground motion prediction equation for use in the seismic hazard analysis of Ahvaz city using data envelopment analysis," Journal of Engineering Geology, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 99–124, 2022.
  38. Motaghed, M. Khazaee, and M. Mohammadi, "The b-value estimation based on the artificial statistical method for Iran Kope-Dagh seismic province," Arabian Journal of Geosciences, vol. 14, no. 15, pp. 1–9, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-07584-7
  39. Akkar and Z. Cagnan, "a local ground-motion predictive model for Turkey, and Its comparison with other regional and global ground-motion models," Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 100, no. 6, pp. 2978–2995, 2010, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120090367.
  40. Akkar, M. A. Sandıkkaya, and J. J. Bommer, "Empirical ground-motion models for point- and extended-source crustal earthquake scenarios in Europe and the Middle East," Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 359–387, 2013, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-013-9461-4.
  41. J. Chiou and R. R. Youngs, "An NGA model for the average horizontal component of peak ground motion and response spectra," Earthquake Spectra, vol. 24, no. 1, pp. 173–215, 2008, https://doi.org/10.1193/1.2894832.
  42. X. Zhao, "Attenuation Relations of Strong Ground Motion in Japan Using Site Classification Based on Predominant Period," Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, vol. 96, no. 3, pp. 898–913, 2006, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120050122.
  43. Task Committee on Blast-Resistant Design of the Petrochemical Committee of the Energy Division of ASCE, Design of blast-resistant buildings in petrochemical facilities, 1st ed. American Society of Civil Engineers, 1997.‏
  44. Motaghed and A. R. Fakhriyat, "Modeling inelastic behavior of RC adhered shear walls in OpenSees,"Journal of Modeling in Engineering, vol. 18, no. 63, pp. 15-25, 2021, (in Persian), https://doi.org/10.22075/jme.2020.18042.1740.
  45. Mehrabi Moghadam, A. Yazdani, and S. Motaghed, "Considering the yielding displacement uncertainty in reliability of mid-rise RC structures," Journal of Rehabilitation in Civil Engineering, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 141–157, 2022, https://doi.org/10.22075/jrce.2021.19660.1376.
  46. Motaghed and A. Khooshecharkh, "Probabilistic evaluation of the effects of concrete compression strength on the reinforced concrete building damageability," European Journal of Scientific Research, vol. 50, no. 2, pp. 202–207, 2011.
  47. W. Baker and C. A. Cornell, "Spectral shape, epsilon and record selection," Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics, vol. 35, no. 9, pp. 1077–1095, 2006, https://doi.org/10.1002/eqe.571.
Volume 8, Issue 2
September 2025
Pages 11-21

  • Receive Date 18 April 2025
  • Revise Date 19 September 2025
  • Accept Date 20 September 2025