International Journal of Reliability, Risk and Safety: Theory and Application

International Journal of Reliability, Risk and Safety: Theory and Application

A Bayesian–Weibull Reliability Assessment Framework for an MS5002C Gas Turbine Using Operational Failure Data

Document Type : Original Research Article

Authors
1 Aerospace research institute
2 Ph.D. Student, Aerospace Research Institute, Ministry of Science, Research and Technology, Tehran, Iran
10.22034/ijrrs.2026.525842.1200
Abstract
Gas turbines are critical assets in gas compression and power generation systems, and their reliability directly determines operational continuity and safety. This study presents a Bayesian–Weibull framework for reliability assessment of an MS5002C industrial gas turbine based on real operational failure data (N=246). As a prerequisite for prior elicitation, four candidate statistical distributions — exponential, two-parameter Weibull, lognormal, and log-logistic — were systematically evaluated and fitted using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), with model adequacy assessed through quantitative goodness-of-fit criteria including the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) statistic, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The lognormal distribution was identified as the most suitable baseline model, yielding an initial mean time between failures (MTBF) of 123.23 days. To address data scarcity and parameter uncertainty inherent in industrial failure datasets, a Bayesian–Weibull model with an informative lognormal prior was developed and fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. The posterior estimates indicated an MTBF of 115.6 days and a shape parameter of β=0.8621, indicating a decreasing hazard rate consistent with early-life or improvement-driven failure behavior. Compared with conventional frequentist methods, the proposed framework produces narrower posterior credible intervals and more stable parameter estimates, particularly under limited failure-data conditions, thereby supporting more informed maintenance decision-making. The robustness of the posterior estimates was further confirmed through sensitivity analysis with respect to prior assumptions and model parameters. Overall, the proposed Bayesian–Weibull framework provides a transparent, computationally efficient, and practically applicable tool for reliability analysis and maintenance planning in industrial gas compression systems, with potential extensibility to other turbine-based applications.
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Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 11 October 2026

  • Receive Date 24 May 2025
  • Revise Date 19 September 2026
  • Accept Date 11 October 2026